Democratic
Michigan › Michigan State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan State Senate District 36
Hoitenga is very likely to win: Hoitenga wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Yonkman (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Hoitenga (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+27.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hoitenga is very likely to win: Hoitenga wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Yonkman (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Hoitenga (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+32.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+46 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Michele Hoitenga
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.98 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+37: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 275,580
- People per km²
- 8
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 20%
- White, no degree
- 75%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
168,074 two-party votes · R+37.4 · R+35.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.7%
Kamala Harris (D)31.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
131,982 votes · R+32.5✓ Michele Hoitenga (R)66.3%
Joel A Sheltrown (D)33.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
158,959 two-party votes · R+35.4 · R+40.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.7%
Joe Biden (D)32.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
110,453 votes · R+28.6✓ Jim Stamas (R)64.3%
Joe Weir (D)35.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
131,438 two-party votes · R+37.2 · R+39.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
84,637 votes · R+22.5✓ Jim Stamas (R)61.3%
Joe Lukasiewicz (D)38.7%