Democratic
Michigan › Michigan State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan State Senate District 19
Rogers is very likely to win: Rogers wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Rogers (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Young (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+23.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Rogers is very likely to win: Rogers wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Rogers (D)
98%
chance of winning
Young (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+22.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Shaun Young
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.61 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 272,203
- People per km²
- 194
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 11%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
148,805 two-party votes · D+17.4 · D+18.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)58.7%
Donald Trump (R)41.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
118,266 votes · D+19.6✓ Sean McCann (D)59.6%
Tamara Mitchell (R)40.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
145,752 two-party votes · D+18.5 · D+13.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.2%
Donald Trump (R)40.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
97,686 votes · R+20.9✓ John Bizon (R)58.6%
Jason Noble (D)38.3%
Joseph P Gillotte (L)3.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
121,975 two-party votes · D+13.3 · D+11.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.6%
Donald Trump (R)43.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
72,749 votes · R+23.2✓ Mike Nofs (R)61.6%
Greg Grieves (D)38.4%