Democratic
Michigan › Michigan State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan State Senate District 29
Groff-Blaszak is very likely to win: Groff-Blaszak wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Groff-Blaszak (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Middleton (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+32.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+24 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Groff-Blaszak is very likely to win: Groff-Blaszak wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Groff-Blaszak (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Middleton (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+32.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+45
- Partisan lean
- D+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Brady Middleton
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 267,104
- People per km²
- 1,333
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 55%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 17%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
125,922 two-party votes · D+26.4 · D+27.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)63.2%
Donald Trump (R)36.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
98,522 votes · D+20.6✓ Winnie Brinks (D)60.3%
Tommy Brann (R)39.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
125,496 two-party votes · D+28.1 · D+23.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)64.0%
Donald Trump (R)36.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
124,225 votes · D+16.9✓ Winnie Brinks (D)56.9%
Chris Afendoulis (R)40.4%
Robert Vannoller (L)1.5%
Louis Palus (OTH)1.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
103,747 two-party votes · D+20.0 · D+17.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)60.0%
Donald Trump (R)40.0%
2014 Earlier district lines
81,478 votes · R+15.9✓ Dave Hildenbrand (R)57.9%
Lance Penny (D)42.1%