Democratic
Michigan › Michigan State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan State Senate District 1
Onwenu is very likely to win: Onwenu wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Onwenu (D)
>99%
chance of winning
O'Connell (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+55.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+46 to D+66
- Partisan lean
- D+54
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Onwenu is very likely to win: Onwenu wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Onwenu (D)
>99%
chance of winning
O'Connell (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+58.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+46 to D+72
- Partisan lean
- D+54
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Patrick O'Connell
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.49 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+54: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 262,314
- People per km²
- 1,644
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 23%of adults
- White 29%
- Hispanic 22%
- Black 43%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
94,032 two-party votes · D+51.8 · D+53.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)75.9%
Donald Trump (R)24.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
74,964 votes · D+43.1✓ Erika Geiss (D)71.3%
Erik Soderquist (R)28.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
97,983 two-party votes · D+60.6 · D+56.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)80.3%
Donald Trump (R)19.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
86,207 votes · D+49.7✓ Stephanie Chang (D)72.0%
Pauline Montie (R)24.2%
David Bullock (G)3.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
88,553 two-party votes · D+65.8 · D+63.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)82.9%
Donald Trump (R)17.1%
2014 Earlier district lines
67,531 votes · D+43.7✓ Coleman Young (D)71.8%
Barry Berk (R)28.2%