Democratic
Massachusetts › Massachusetts House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts House of Representatives: 3rd Barnstable District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (94%).
Richardson is clearly favored to win: Richardson wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Richardson (D)
94%
chance of winning
Vieira (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+13.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (98%).
Richardson is very likely to win: Richardson wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Richardson (D)
98%
chance of winning
Vieira (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+21.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
David Vieira
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.38 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -28.2 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -28.2 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 43,343
- People per km²
- 187
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
28,659 votes · R+12.1✓ David T Vieira (R)56.0%
Kathleen Fox Alfano (D)44.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
29,515 two-party votes · D+17.8 · D+19.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)58.9%
Donald Trump (R)41.1%
2022
50,711 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Sean Garballey (D)33.2%
Joan Meschino (D)31.5%
Aaron M Michlewitz (D)18.2%
Steven Ultrino (D)15.4%
Writein (—)1.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
38,724 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Joan Meschino (D)53.6%
Aaron M Michlewitz (D)46.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
29,246 two-party votes · D+21.2 · D+16.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.6%
Donald Trump (R)39.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
24,773 two-party votes · D+10.6 · D+8.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.3%
Donald Trump (R)44.7%