DemocraticIncumbent
Bridget Plouffe
- Experience
- State legislature
Massachusetts › Massachusetts House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts House of Representatives: 9th Plymouth District
Plouffe is very likely to win: Plouffe wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Plouffe (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Novak (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+26.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+17 to D+36
- Partisan lean
- D+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Plouffe is very likely to win: Plouffe wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Plouffe (D)
99%
chance of winning
Novak (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+24.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+12 to D+36
- Partisan lean
- D+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Larry Novak
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.58 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 13.43 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 13.43 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 41,678
- People per km²
- 376
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 69%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 14%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
21,746 votes · D+28.7✓ Bridget M Plouffe (D)54.3%
Lawrence Peter Novak (R)30.1%
Jonathan Wilshire Gill (—)15.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
22,894 two-party votes · D+15.9 · D+17.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.9%
Donald Trump (R)42.1%
2022
19,730 votes · D+29.7✓ James Arciero (D)64.8%
Raymond Yinggang Xie (R)35.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
21,762 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ James Arciero (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,768 two-party votes · D+23.8 · D+19.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)61.9%
Donald Trump (R)38.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,216 two-party votes · D+12.6 · D+10.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.3%
Donald Trump (R)43.7%
Also on the ballot in Massachusetts
Neighboring districts
3rd BristolLisa FieldLarry Quintal98%Dem.94%Dem. 6th NorfolkSteve Cavey—D vs D>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 7th PlymouthRosemary Aahanna-HillAlyson Sullivan-AlmeidaD flip73%Rep.67%Dem. 8th NorfolkTed Philips—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 8th PlymouthDennis GallagherJohn Norris88%Dem.69%Dem. 10th PlymouthMichelle DuBois—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 11th PlymouthRita Mendes—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.