Democratic
Massachusetts › Massachusetts House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts House of Representatives: 9th Norfolk District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (91%).
Melville is clearly favored to win: Melville wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Melville (D)
91%
chance of winning
Vaughn (R)
9%
- Average margin
- D+11.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (97%).
Melville is very likely to win: Melville wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Melville (D)
97%
chance of winning
Vaughn (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+20.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Marcus Vaughn
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.23 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -26.77 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -26.77 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 45,212
- People per km²
- 271
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 59%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 83%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
26,553 votes · R+14.8✓ Marcus S Vaughn (R)57.4%
Kevin Kalkut (D)42.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
26,721 two-party votes · D+12.7 · D+14.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.3%
Donald Trump (R)43.7%
2022
20,708 votes · R+1.7✓ Marcus S Vaughn (R)50.9%
Kevin Kalkut (D)49.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
27,105 votes · R+17.0✓ Shawn C Dooley (R)58.5%
Brian P Hamlin (D)41.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
27,297 two-party votes · D+20.1 · D+15.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.1%
Donald Trump (R)39.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
22,221 two-party votes · D+8.3 · D+6.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.1%
Donald Trump (R)45.9%
Also on the ballot in Massachusetts
Neighboring districts
1st Bristol—Michael Chaisson>99%Rep.>99%Rep. 8th MiddlesexJames Arena-DeRosa—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 8th NorfolkTed Philips—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 8th Worcester—Michael Soter>99%Rep.>99%Rep. 10th NorfolkJeffrey Roy—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 11th NorfolkPaul McMurtry—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 12th NorfolkJohn H. Rogers—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 13th NorfolkJoshua Tarsky—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 14th BristolAdam Scanlon—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.