DemocraticIncumbent
Carole Fiola
- Experience
- State legislature
Massachusetts › Massachusetts House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts House of Representatives: 6th Bristol District
Fiola is very likely to win: Fiola wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Fiola (D)
98%
chance of winning
Anctil (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+20.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fiola is clearly favored to win: Fiola wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Fiola (D)
85%
chance of winning
Anctil (R)
15%
- Average margin
- D+10.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Robert Anctil
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.11 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 38,015
- People per km²
- 716
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 18%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 7%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
11,766 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Carole A Fiola (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
16,311 two-party votes · D+0.5 · D+2.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%
2022
7,577 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Carole A Fiola (D)96.6%
Writein (—)3.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
46,251 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Tommy Vitolo (D)36.3%
Nika Elugardo (D)35.7%
Carole A Fiola (D)28.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
17,192 two-party votes · D+14.5 · D+10.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.3%
Donald Trump (R)42.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
15,221 two-party votes · D+18.6 · D+16.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.3%
Donald Trump (R)40.7%