99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Massachusetts · Massachusetts House of Representatives: 9th Norfolk District · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Marcus Vaughn

RepublicanIncumbent

2026 race · Massachusetts House of Representatives: 9th Norfolk District

9% chance of winning · race rated Likely D

91%9%

3% chance of winning · race rated Solid D

97%3%
● Tom Melville● Marcus VaughnINC
Full race forecast

Background

Current office
Massachusetts House of Representatives, HD-104
Experience
State legislature
Past races on file
2 (1 won)

Links: Candidate list (source)

Electoral history

Earlier races in Massachusetts, newest first, matched by name in the results archive.

  1. 2024

    House of Representatives · HD-104 Nov 5, 2024

    R · 57.4% · 15,244 votes

    Won
  2. 2022

    House of Representatives · HD-9 Nov 8, 2022

    R · 13.3% · 10,534 votes

    Lost

Opponents in 2026