Democratic
Massachusetts › Massachusetts House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts House of Representatives: 18th Essex District
Murray is very likely to win: Murray wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Murray (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Shepley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+30.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+21 to D+40
- Partisan lean
- D+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Murray is very likely to win: Murray wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Murray (D)
99%
chance of winning
Shepley (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+28.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+16 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Christopher Shepley
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Massachusetts state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.54 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 38,372
- People per km²
- 259
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 72%
- White, no degree
- 23%of adults
- White 74%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 3%
- Asian 14%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
18,998 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Tram T Nguyen (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
25,683 two-party votes · D+21.5 · D+23.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.7%
Donald Trump (R)39.3%
2022
19,567 votes · D+20.8✓ Tram T Nguyen (D)60.4%
Jeffrey Peter Dufour (R)39.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
27,387 two-party votes · D+27.7 · D+23.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)63.8%
Donald Trump (R)36.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
21,250 votes · D+9.8✓ Tram T Nguyen (D)54.9%
James J Lyons Jr (R)45.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
22,749 two-party votes · D+16.6 · D+14.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.3%
Donald Trump (R)41.7%
Also on the ballot in Massachusetts
Neighboring districts
4th EssexEstela Reyes—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 13th EssexSally Kerans—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 14th EssexAdrianne Ramos—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 15th Essex—Ronald Heiseler III>99%Rep.>99%Rep. 17th EssexFrank A. Moran—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 17th MiddlesexHarini Aiyer—D vs D>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 19th MiddlesexDave Robertson—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. 20th MiddlesexJoseph MarkeyTrevor CurrierD flipD flip85%Dem.91%Dem. 36th MiddlesexColleen Garry—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.