Democratic
Iowa › Iowa House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa House District 97
Peters is very likely to win: Peters wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Peters (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Helmick (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+28.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+19 to D+38
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Peters is very likely to win: Peters wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Peters (D)
99%
chance of winning
Helmick (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+28.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+16 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Charlie Helmick
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Iowa state offices
- +1.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.69 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.62 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 36,118
- People per km²
- 1,528
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 12%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,199 votes · D+17.6✓ Ken Croken (D)58.7%
Josue Rodriguez (R)41.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
13,363 two-party votes · D+19.5 · D+21.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)59.7%
Donald Trump (R)40.3%
2022
7,856 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ken Croken (D)71.8%
Andrew Onsgard (L)26.6%
Write-In (—)1.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
18,052 votes · R+26.5✓ Norlin Mommsen (R)63.2%
Ryan Zeskey (D)36.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,067 two-party votes · D+28.8 · D+24.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)64.4%
Donald Trump (R)35.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,224 two-party votes · D+25.8 · D+23.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)62.9%
Donald Trump (R)37.1%