99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Hawaii · Hawaii House District 40 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Rose Martinez

Democratic

2026 race · Hawaii House District 40

44% chance of winning · race rated Toss-up

44%56%

49% chance of winning · race rated Toss-up

49%51%
● Rose Martinez● Julie Reyes OdaINC
Full race forecast

Background

Past races on file
6 (2 won)

Links: Candidate list (source)

Electoral history

Earlier races in Hawaii, newest first, matched by name in the results archive.

  1. 2022

    House of Representatives · HD-40 Nov 8, 2022

    D · 51.6% · 3,096 votes

    Won
  2. 2020

    House of Representatives · HD-40 Nov 3, 2020

    D · 42.0% · 3,886 votes

    Lost
  3. 2018

    House of Representatives · HD-40 Nov 6, 2018

    D · 44.2% · 2,406 votes

    Lost
  4. 2016

    House of Representatives · HD-40 Nov 8, 2016

    D · 41.3% · 2,485 votes

    Lost
  5. 2014

    House of Representatives · HD-40 Nov 4, 2014

    D · 37.7% · 1,915 votes

    Lost
  6. 2014

    House of Representatives · HD-40 primary · Aug 9, 2014

    D · 61.1% · 1,404 votes

    Won

Opponents in 2026