DemocraticIncumbent
Matthew Martinez
- Experience
- State legislature
Colorado › Colorado House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado House District 62
Martinez is very likely to win: Martinez wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Martinez (D)
96%
chance of winning
Rodriguez (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+14.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Martinez is favored to win: Martinez wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Martinez (D)
80%
chance of winning
Rodriguez (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+8.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Colorado state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.53 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.23 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 7.23 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 90,375
- People per km²
- 4
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 44%
- Hispanic 49%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
39,159 votes · D+7.5✓ Matthew Martinez (D)53.8%
Carol Riggenbach (R)46.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
39,551 two-party votes · D+0.1 · D+1.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.0%
Donald Trump (R)50.0%
2022
31,116 votes · D+11.2✓ Matthew Martinez (D)55.6%
Carol Riggenbach (R)44.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
39,687 votes · D+15.6✓ Donald E Valdez (D)57.8%
Logan Taggart (R)42.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
41,822 two-party votes · D+11.2 · D+6.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
35,118 two-party votes · D+12.9 · D+10.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.5%
Donald Trump (R)43.5%