DemocraticIncumbent
Katie Stewart
- Experience
- State legislature
Colorado › Colorado House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado House District 59
Stewart is very likely to win: Stewart wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Stewart (D)
97%
chance of winning
Riess (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+14.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Stewart is clearly favored to win: Stewart wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Stewart (D)
85%
chance of winning
Riess (R)
15%
- Average margin
- D+9.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Naomi Riess
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Colorado state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.19 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.07 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.07 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 88,131
- People per km²
- 7
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 74%
- Hispanic 14%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 11%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
54,517 votes · D+2.4✓ Katie Stewart (D)51.2%
Clark Craig (R)48.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
55,301 two-party votes · D+7.5 · D+9.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.8%
Donald Trump (R)46.2%
2022
46,575 votes · D+13.5✓ Barbara McLachlan (D)56.8%
Shelli Shaw (R)43.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
53,312 votes · D+10.8✓ Barbara McLachlan (D)55.4%
Marilyn Harris (R)44.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
55,749 two-party votes · D+5.7 · D+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.8%
Donald Trump (R)47.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
44,243 two-party votes · R+2.7 · R+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.7%