DemocraticIncumbent
Amy Paschal
- Experience
- State legislature
Colorado › Colorado House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado House District 18
Paschal is very likely to win: Paschal wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Paschal (D)
99%
chance of winning
Cuva (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+20.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Paschal is clearly favored to win: Paschal wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Paschal (D)
94%
chance of winning
Cuva (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+16.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Adriana Cuva
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Colorado state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.81 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.57 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.57 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 82,417
- People per km²
- 174
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 51%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
46,290 votes · D+7.1✓ Amy T Paschal (D)53.5%
James R Boelens Jr (R)46.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
47,551 two-party votes · D+11.8 · D+13.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.9%
Donald Trump (R)44.1%
2022
37,984 votes · D+8.8✓ Marc Snyder (D)52.8%
Shana Black (R)44.3%
Greg Lauer (L)2.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
44,563 votes · D+23.4✓ Marc Snyder (D)59.1%
George M Rapko (R)36.6%
Nathan Foutch (—)4.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
49,548 two-party votes · D+9.3 · D+4.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.7%
Donald Trump (R)45.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
42,051 two-party votes · R+2.1 · R+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.9%