Democratic
Colorado › Colorado House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado House District 15
Tiegen is favored to win: Tiegen wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Livingston (D)
23%
chance of winning
Tiegen (R)
77%
- Average margin
- R+5.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Tiegen is clearly favored to win: Tiegen wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Livingston (D)
17%
chance of winning
Tiegen (R)
83%
- Average margin
- R+9.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Colorado state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.88 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.66 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 86,886
- People per km²
- 382
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 22%
- Black 6%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
45,734 votes · R+16.0✓ Scott Bottoms (R)58.0%
Jeff K Livingston (D)42.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
47,384 two-party votes · R+13.6 · R+12.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.8%
Kamala Harris (D)43.2%
2022
31,199 votes · R+18.4✓ Scott T Bottoms (R)56.8%
Alvin Sexton (D)39.1%
John Kaufman (L)4.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
48,938 votes · R+24.5✓ Dave Williams (R)59.1%
John Pyne IV (D)35.8%
Mike McRedmond (—)5.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
40,942 two-party votes · R+15.3 · R+19.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Joe Biden (D)42.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
28,028 two-party votes · R+32.9 · R+35.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.6%
Also on the ballot in Colorado
Neighboring districts
HD-14Sarah EmeryAva Flanell84%Rep.78%Rep. HD-16Stephanie VigilJill HaffleyD flipD flip98%Dem.90%Dem. HD-17Regina EnglishLaura Martin>99%Dem.96%Dem. HD-20—Jarvis Caldwell>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-21Michelle TweedBrenda Miller74%Rep.84%Rep. HD-22Michael PiersonKen DeGraaf81%Rep.75%Rep. HD-56—Chris Richardson>99%Rep.>99%Rep.