Democratic
Colorado › Colorado House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado House District 3
Ozols is very likely to win: Ozols wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ozols (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Winegar (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+40.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ozols is very likely to win: Ozols wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ozols (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Winegar (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+40.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+28 to D+54
- Partisan lean
- D+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Rebecca Winegar
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Colorado state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.05 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.8 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 84,554
- People per km²
- 1,518
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 53%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 22%
- Black 6%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
40,682 votes · D+28.1✓ Meg Froelich (D)64.0%
Mickey Neal (R)35.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
42,193 two-party votes · D+34.6 · D+36.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)67.3%
Donald Trump (R)32.7%
2022
33,284 votes · D+35.0✓ Meg Froelich (D)66.0%
Marla Fernandez (R)31.8%
Clayton Casciato (L)2.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
47,490 votes · D+21.8✓ Meg Froelich (D)59.1%
Dean L Titterington (R)37.9%
David P Jurist (—)3.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
45,656 two-party votes · D+38.2 · D+33.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)69.1%
Donald Trump (R)30.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
36,813 two-party votes · D+27.4 · D+25.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)63.7%
Donald Trump (R)36.3%
Also on the ballot in Colorado
Neighboring districts
HD-1Javier MabreyJoseph Montoya>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-2Scott BaldermannCarey Marin>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-9Monica VanBuskirkTom Cowhick>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-37Chad CliffordJill Thompson>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-38Gretchen Rydin—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-40Naquetta RicksClinton Porter>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-41Jamie Jackson—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.