Democratic
Colorado › Colorado House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado House District 14
Flanell is clearly favored to win: Flanell wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Emery (D)
16%
chance of winning
Flanell (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+7.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flanell is favored to win: Flanell wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Emery (D)
22%
chance of winning
Flanell (R)
78%
- Average margin
- R+7.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Ava Flanell
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Colorado state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.98 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.69 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 88,578
- People per km²
- 801
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 61%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 74%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 3%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
56,729 votes · R+21.4✓ Rose Pugliese (R)60.7%
Katherine "kat" Gayle (D)39.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
58,646 two-party votes · R+10.7 · R+9.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.4%
Kamala Harris (D)44.6%
2022
44,915 votes · R+21.3✓ Rose Pugliese (R)60.7%
Rob Rogers (D)39.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
55,890 votes · R+26.7✓ Shane Sandridge (R)60.9%
John Foley (D)35.2%
David A Thompson (—)3.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
53,465 two-party votes · R+16.2 · R+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.1%
Joe Biden (D)41.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
39,829 two-party votes · R+31.3 · R+33.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.4%