Democratic
Colorado › Colorado House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado House District 27
Varda is very likely to win: Varda wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Varda (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Bodenstab (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+27.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+18 to D+37
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Varda is very likely to win: Varda wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Varda (D)
99%
chance of winning
Bodenstab (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+26.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+39
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Eric Bodenstab
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Colorado state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.76 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.3 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 78,388
- People per km²
- 167
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 58%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 1%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
53,169 votes · D+13.6✓ Brianna Titone (D)56.8%
Ed Cox (R)43.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
54,184 two-party votes · D+23.0 · D+24.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)61.5%
Donald Trump (R)38.5%
2022
45,685 votes · D+18.4✓ Brianna Titone (D)57.7%
Lynn Emrick (R)39.8%
Jacob Luria (L)2.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
60,708 votes · D+3.3✓ Brianna Titone (D)48.7%
Vicki Pyne (R)45.6%
Cory Schaeffer (—)5.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
58,035 two-party votes · D+20.8 · D+16.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.4%
Donald Trump (R)39.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
46,451 two-party votes · D+9.8 · D+7.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.9%
Donald Trump (R)45.1%
Also on the ballot in Colorado
Neighboring districts
HD-12Kyle BrownRyan Rhatigan>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-23Alexis Hoffkling—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-24Lisa FeretKristopher Johnson>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-25Tammy StoryMark Herzfeld99%Dem.92%Dem. HD-29Lori GoldsteinKristine Ireland>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-33Kenny NguyenNate Jorgensen>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-35Lorena Garcia—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-49Lesley SmithMichael Sheperek>99%Dem.>99%Dem.