DemocraticIncumbent
Rebekah Stewart
- Experience
- State legislature
Colorado › Colorado House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado House District 30
Stewart is very likely to win: Stewart wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Stewart (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Switzer (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+36.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+27 to D+46
- Partisan lean
- D+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Stewart is very likely to win: Stewart wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Stewart (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Switzer (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+35.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
William Tyler Switzer
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Colorado state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.16 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.9 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.9 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 85,494
- People per km²
- 1,862
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 28%
- Black 2%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
42,809 votes · D+24.5✓ Rebekah Stewart (D)62.2%
Ramey Johnson (R)37.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
44,011 two-party votes · D+30.1 · D+31.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)65.0%
Donald Trump (R)35.0%
2022
34,169 votes · D+31.7✓ Chris Kennedy (D)65.9%
Russ Carter (R)34.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
39,481 votes · D+13.7✓ Dafna Michaelson Jenet (D)56.9%
Kerrie Gutierrez (R)43.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
46,951 two-party votes · D+33.6 · D+29.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)66.8%
Donald Trump (R)33.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
38,098 two-party votes · D+24.2 · D+22.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)62.1%
Donald Trump (R)37.9%