Two representatives per district
Each legislative district elects one senator and two House members. Voters may pick up to two House candidates and the top two finishers win, so a district can split between the parties.
Arizona › Arizona House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona Legislative District 24
2 seatsFlores is very likely to win: Flores wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Flores (D)
>99%
chance of winning
McLaughlin (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+33.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+45
- Partisan lean
- D+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flores is very likely to win: Flores wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Flores (D)
99%
chance of winning
McLaughlin (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+29.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+16 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arizona state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.45 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 230,218
- People per km²
- 2,802
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 12%
- White, no degree
- 20%of adults
- White 20%
- Hispanic 68%
- Black 6%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
60,696 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lydia Hernandez (D)52.3%
✓ Anna Abeytia (D)44.8%
Write-In (—)2.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
54,779 two-party votes · D+20.7 · D+22.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.4%
Donald Trump (R)39.6%
2022
41,838 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Analise Ortiz (D)48.8%
✓ Lydia Hernandez (D)47.8%
Write-In (—)3.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
171,519 votes · D+40.5✓ Amish Shah (D)35.9%
✓ Jennifer Longdon (D)35.1%
Robyn Cushman (R)15.2%
David Alger Sr (R)13.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
61,004 two-party votes · D+32.7 · D+28.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)66.3%
Donald Trump (R)33.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
44,210 two-party votes · D+33.2 · D+31.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)66.6%
Donald Trump (R)33.4%