Two representatives per district
Each legislative district elects one senator and two House members. Voters may pick up to two House candidates and the top two finishers win, so a district can split between the parties.
Arizona › Arizona House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona Legislative District 11
2 seatsSantos is very likely to win: Santos wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Santos (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Dailey (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+46.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+36 to D+56
- Partisan lean
- D+44
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Santos is very likely to win: Santos wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Santos (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Dailey (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+48.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+36 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+44
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Oscar De Los Santos
- Experience
- State legislature
DemocraticIncumbent
Junelle Cavero
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Joseph Charles Dailey
Republican
Cesar Aleman
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arizona state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.11 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.82 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.82 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+44: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 239,072
- People per km²
- 869
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 14%of adults
- White 19%
- Hispanic 57%
- Black 15%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
127,622 votes · D+45.7✓ Oscar de Los Santos (D)37.4%
✓ Junelle Cavero (D)34.7%
Cesar Ivan Aleman (R)13.9%
Joseph Charles Dailey (R)13.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
74,610 two-party votes · D+40.4 · D+41.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)70.2%
Donald Trump (R)29.8%
2022
74,526 votes · D+37.9✓ Oscar de Los Santos (D)41.0%
✓ Marcelino Quinonez (D)40.3%
Tatiana Pena M (R)18.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
198,151 votes · R+5.8✓ Bret Roberts (R)34.7%
✓ Mark Finchem (R)34.4%
Felipe R Perez (D)30.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
76,898 two-party votes · D+52.5 · D+48.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)76.3%
Donald Trump (R)23.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
52,257 two-party votes · D+56.9 · D+54.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)78.5%
Donald Trump (R)21.5%
Also on the ballot in Arizona
Neighboring districts
LD-5Sarah Liguori—D vs D2 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. LD-8Brian GarciaDonald Hawker2 seats>99%Dem.99%Dem. LD-12Stacey TraversDavid Richardson2 seats>99%Dem.98%Dem. LD-16Julia GusseChris LopezFlip risk2 seats69%Rep.56%Rep. LD-22Elda Luna-NájeraBlaine Griffin Sr.2 seats>99%Dem.99%Dem. LD-26Cesar AguilarFrank Roberts2 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem.