Two representatives per district
Each legislative district elects one senator and two House members. Voters may pick up to two House candidates and the top two finishers win, so a district can split between the parties.
Arizona › Arizona House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona Legislative District 20
2 seatsVillegas is very likely to win: Villegas wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Villegas (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Weasel (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+48.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+39 to D+59
- Partisan lean
- D+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Villegas is very likely to win: Villegas wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Villegas (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Weasel (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+51.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+39 to D+65
- Partisan lean
- D+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Sally Ann Gonzales
DemocraticIncumbent
Betty Villegas
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Katherine Weasel
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arizona state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.91 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 16.99 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+46: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 238,787
- People per km²
- 1,063
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 22%of adults
- White 35%
- Hispanic 53%
- Black 3%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
83,110 two-party votes · D+43.8 · D+45.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)71.9%
Donald Trump (R)28.1%
2022
81,359 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Alma Hernandez (D)49.9%
✓ Andres Cano (D)47.4%
Write-In (—)2.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
146,995 votes · D+1.4✓ Judy Schwiebert (D)34.4%
✓ Shawnna Bolick (R)33.5%
Anthony Kern (R)32.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
90,617 two-party votes · D+51.4 · D+46.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)75.7%
Donald Trump (R)24.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
131,080 votes · R+3.4✓ Anthony Kern (R)26.1%
✓ Shawnna Bolick (R)25.8%
Hazel Chandler (D)24.4%
Christopher Gilfillan (D)23.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
68,534 two-party votes · D+52.7 · D+50.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)76.4%
Donald Trump (R)23.6%