99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Arizona · Arizona Legislative District 23 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Mariana Sandoval

DemocraticIncumbent2 seats

2026 race · Arizona Legislative District 23

94% chance of winning · race rated Likely D

94%6%

86% chance of winning · race rated Likely D

86%14%
● Mariana SandovalINC● Michele PeñaAlso: Gary Snyder (R), Emilia Cortez (D)
Full race forecast

Background

Current office
Arizona House of Representatives, LD-23
Experience
State legislature
Past races on file
3 (2 won)

Links: Candidate list (source)

Electoral history

Earlier races in Arizona, newest first, matched by name in the results archive.

  1. 2024

    House of Representatives · LD-23 Nov 5, 2024

    D · 32.2% · 28,553 votes

    Won
  2. 2022

    House of Representatives · LD-23 Nov 8, 2022

    D · 36.3% · 26,986 votes

    Won
  3. 2020

    House of Representatives · LD-13 Nov 3, 2020

    D · 25.3% · 47,650 votes

    Lost

Opponents in 2026