Two representatives per district
Each legislative district elects one senator and two House members. Voters may pick up to two House candidates and the top two finishers win, so a district can split between the parties.
Arizona › Arizona House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona Legislative District 3
2 seatsReim is very likely to win: Reim wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Gable (D)
1%
chance of winning
Reim (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+17.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Reim is very likely to win: Reim wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Gable (D)
4%
chance of winning
Reim (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+18.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.0 D · 2.0 R expected of 2 seats
0.1 D · 1.9 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Julie Gable
Democratic
Rick Spargo
Republican
George Khalaf
RepublicanIncumbent
Cody Reim
- Experience
- State legislature
No Labels
John Skirbst
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arizona state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.69 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 233,853
- People per km²
- 61
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 58%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 1%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
238,177 votes · R+25.7✓ Joseph Chaplik (R)39.3%
✓ Alexander Kolodin (R)37.2%
Richard Corles (D)23.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
161,951 two-party votes · R+24.7 · R+23.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.3%
Kamala Harris (D)37.7%
2022
156,724 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Joseph Chaplik (R)50.0%
✓ Alexander Kolodin (R)46.0%
Write-In (—)2.0%
Not Qualified 1 (—)1.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
97,514 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Alma Hernandez (D)50.3%
✓ Andres Cano (D)49.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
159,532 two-party votes · R+21.1 · R+25.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.6%
Joe Biden (D)39.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
119,139 two-party votes · R+26.7 · R+28.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.7%
Also on the ballot in Arizona
Neighboring districts
LD-1Sandy ZaleckiSelina Bliss2 seats>99%Rep.99%Rep. LD-2Stephanie SimacekJustin WilmethFlip risk2 seats80%Dem.60%Dem. LD-4Karen GreshamMatt GressFlip riskD flip2 seats53%Rep.63%Dem. LD-7Samuel MartinWalter Blackman2 seats>99%Rep.99%Rep. LD-8Brian GarciaDonald Hawker2 seats>99%Dem.99%Dem. LD-10Helen HunterJustin Olson2 seats97%Rep.93%Rep. LD-28Barbara FikeBeverly Pingerelli2 seats98%Rep.96%Rep.