Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; the odd-numbered districts are on the ballot in midterm years and the even-numbered ones in presidential years.
Wisconsin › Wisconsin State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin State Senate District 29
Tomczyk is clearly favored to win: Tomczyk wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Battino (D)
5%
chance of winning
Tomczyk (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+12.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Tomczyk is clearly favored to win: Tomczyk wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Battino (D)
7%
chance of winning
Tomczyk (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+14.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Gillian Battino
RepublicanIncumbent
Cory Tomczyk
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wisconsin state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 172,001
- People per km²
- 30
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 66%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
101,435 two-party votes · R+19.5 · R+18.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Kamala Harris (D)40.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
79,400 votes · R+24.9✓ Cory Tomczyk (R)62.5%
Bob Look (D)37.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
98,774 two-party votes · R+18.5 · R+23.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Joe Biden (D)40.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
77,284 votes · R+28.5✓ Jerry Petrowski (R)64.3%
Richard Pulcher (D)35.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
85,714 two-party votes · R+18.8 · R+21.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.6%
2014 Earlier district lines
69,804 votes · R+31.5✓ Jerry Petrowski (R)65.7%
Paul Demain (D)34.3%