Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Tennessee › Tennessee House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee House District 89
Lafferty is very likely to win: Lafferty wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Debord (D)
2%
chance of winning
Lafferty (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+16.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lafferty is very likely to win: Lafferty wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Debord (D)
2%
chance of winning
Lafferty (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+22.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Randy Debord
RepublicanIncumbent
Justin Lafferty
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Tennessee state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.91 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.53 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.53 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 65,839
- People per km²
- 379
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
35,653 votes · R+33.1✓ Justin Lafferty (R)66.6%
Cary Hammond (D)33.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
36,169 two-party votes · R+29.9 · R+28.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.0%
Kamala Harris (D)35.0%
2022
19,431 votes · R+32.4✓ Justin Lafferty (R)66.2%
M D Dotson (D)33.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
34,088 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Justin Lafferty (R)70.1%
Greg Mills (—)27.7%
Kari Keeling (—)2.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
33,650 two-party votes · R+26.4 · R+31.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.2%
Joe Biden (D)36.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
25,656 two-party votes · R+38.2 · R+40.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.9%