Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Tennessee › Tennessee House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee House District 14
Zachary is clearly favored to win: Zachary wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Honaker (D)
7%
chance of winning
Zachary (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+11.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Zachary is clearly favored to win: Zachary wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Honaker (D)
6%
chance of winning
Zachary (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+16.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Lindsay Young Honaker
RepublicanIncumbent
Jason Zachary
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Tennessee state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.8 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.97 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.97 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 72,200
- People per km²
- 505
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 67%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 2%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
41,845 votes · R+29.7✓ Jason Zachary (R)64.8%
Amanda S Collins (D)35.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
41,527 two-party votes · R+23.6 · R+22.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.8%
Kamala Harris (D)38.2%
2022
25,888 votes · R+28.7✓ Jason Zachary (R)64.4%
Amanda Collins (D)35.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
41,097 votes · R+29.2✓ Jason Zachary (R)64.6%
Justin Davis (D)35.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
40,643 two-party votes · R+21.6 · R+26.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Joe Biden (D)39.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
32,253 two-party votes · R+32.4 · R+34.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.8%