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Tennessee › Tennessee House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee House District 44
Lamberth is very likely to win: Lamberth wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Holcomb (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Lamberth (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+34.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+26
- Partisan lean
- R+49
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lamberth is very likely to win: Lamberth wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Holcomb (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Lamberth (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+44.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+57 to R+33
- Partisan lean
- R+49
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Latoya Holcomb
RepublicanIncumbent
William Lamberth
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Tennessee state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.41 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.49 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.49 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+49: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 75,025
- People per km²
- 90
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 61%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
35,067 votes · R+54.2✓ William Lamberth (R)77.1%
Brian Robertson (D)22.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
36,022 two-party votes · R+50.4 · R+48.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)75.2%
Kamala Harris (D)24.8%
2022
17,771 votes · R+56.3✓ William Lamberth (R)78.1%
Kesa Fowler (D)21.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
27,015 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ William Lamberth (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
36,085 two-party votes · R+45.2 · R+49.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.6%
Joe Biden (D)27.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
22,543 two-party votes · R+50.9 · R+53.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)75.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)24.5%