Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Tennessee › Tennessee House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee House District 35
Slater is very likely to win: Slater wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Barnes (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Slater (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+28.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Slater is very likely to win: Slater wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Barnes (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Slater (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+37.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+50 to R+26
- Partisan lean
- R+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Phil Barnes
RepublicanIncumbent
William Slater
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Tennessee state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.17 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.79 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.79 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+42: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 67,236
- People per km²
- 110
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 14%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
28,535 votes · R+41.5✓ William H Slater (R)70.8%
Lexi Melton (D)29.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
29,915 two-party votes · R+42.7 · R+41.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.3%
Kamala Harris (D)28.7%
2022
13,158 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ William Slater (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
20,824 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jerry Sexton (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
28,320 two-party votes · R+38.9 · R+43.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.5%
Joe Biden (D)30.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
21,803 two-party votes · R+43.3 · R+45.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)28.4%