Two representatives per district
Each of the 35 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 26 and 28 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
South Dakota › South Dakota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota Legislative District 4
2 seatsKohl is very likely to win: Kohl wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Enquist (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Kohl (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+39.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+49 to R+29
- Partisan lean
- R+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kohl is very likely to win: Kohl wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Enquist (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Kohl (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+47.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+60 to R+34
- Partisan lean
- R+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.0 D · 2.0 R expected of 2 seats
0.0 D · 2.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.01 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.51 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+53: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 29,901
- People per km²
- 3
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 72%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
15,267 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kent Roe (R)52.1%
✓ Dylan C Jordan (R)47.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
13,302 two-party votes · R+53.8 · R+52.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.9%
Kamala Harris (D)23.1%
2022
13,277 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Fred Deutsch (R)52.5%
✓ Stephanie Sauder (R)47.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
18,655 votes · R+37.5✓ Fred Deutsch (R)42.9%
✓ John Mills (R)37.5%
Becky Holtquist (D)19.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,317 two-party votes · R+50.7 · R+55.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)75.3%
Joe Biden (D)24.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
12,491 two-party votes · R+48.5 · R+50.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)25.8%