Democratic
New Mexico › New Mexico House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Mexico House District 38
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (45% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Mooney (D)
45%
chance of winning
Dow (R)
55%
- Average margin
- R+1.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (61%).
Mooney is favored to win: Mooney wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Mooney (D)
61%
chance of winning
Dow (R)
39%
- Average margin
- D+2.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Rebecca Dow
Incumbent state representative
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Mexico state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.23 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.64 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.64 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 21,973
- People per km²
- 2
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 20%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 41%
- Hispanic 46%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 11%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
11,710 votes · R+3.3✓ Rebecca Dow (R)51.6%
Tara Jaramillo (D)48.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
11,697 two-party votes · R+4.3 · R+2.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.1%
Kamala Harris (D)47.9%
2022
8,877 votes · D+1.4✓ Tara Jaramillo (D)50.7%
Sandra Kay Hammack (R)49.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
15,125 votes · R+16.3✓ Rebecca L Dow (R)56.5%
Karen C Whitlock (D)40.6%
William Parrishkinney (—)2.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
11,677 two-party votes · D+3.5 · R+1.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.7%
Donald Trump (R)48.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,526 two-party votes · D+4.2 · D+2.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.1%
Donald Trump (R)47.9%