DemocraticIncumbent
Charlotte Little
Incumbent state representative since 2023
- Experience
- State legislature
New Mexico › New Mexico House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Mexico House District 68
Little is very likely to win: Little wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Little (D)
96%
chance of winning
Adkins (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+13.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Little is clearly favored to win: Little wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Little (D)
90%
chance of winning
Adkins (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+12.8
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
David E. Adkins
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Mexico state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.76 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.76 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 24,973
- People per km²
- 1,089
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 45%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 11%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,661 votes · D+4.4✓ Charlotte L. Little (D)52.2%
Nathan T. Brooks (R)47.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
14,886 two-party votes · D+4.7 · D+6.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.3%
Donald Trump (R)47.7%
2022
11,264 votes · D+0.3✓ Charlotte L Little (D)50.2%
Robert Henry Moss (R)49.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,211 votes · D+5.1✓ Karen C Bash (D)52.5%
Giovanni Coppola (R)47.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,859 two-party votes · D+10.8 · D+6.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.4%
Donald Trump (R)44.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,723 two-party votes · R+0.6 · R+2.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.7%