DemocraticIncumbent
Sarah Silva
Incumbent state representative since 2025
- Experience
- State legislature
New Mexico › New Mexico House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Mexico House District 53
Silva is clearly favored to win: Silva wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Silva (D)
92%
chance of winning
Luna (R)
8%
- Average margin
- D+11.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Silva is clearly favored to win: Silva wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Silva (D)
80%
chance of winning
Luna (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+8.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Ben Luna Jr.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Mexico state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.63 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.63 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 29,376
- People per km²
- 24
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 14%of adults
- White 22%
- Hispanic 74%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
9,584 votes · D+1.6✓ Sarah Angelina Silva (D)50.8%
Elizabeth Lee Winterrowd (R)49.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
9,750 two-party votes · D+1.6 · D+3.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%
2022
11,267 votes · D+0.3✓ Willie D Madrid (D)50.2%
Elizabeth Leewinterrowd (R)49.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,684 votes · D+0.6✓ Willie D Madrid (D)50.3%
Ricky L Little (R)49.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,096 two-party votes · D+9.6 · D+5.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.8%
Donald Trump (R)45.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,658 two-party votes · D+15.2 · D+13.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.6%
Donald Trump (R)42.4%