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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

New Mexico › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

New Mexico Treasurer

Montoya is very likely to win: Montoya wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Montoya (D)
99%
chance of winning
Ellison (R)
1%
Average margin
D+18.1
80% of outcomes
D+10 to D+27
Partisan lean
D+7
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Montoya is clearly favored to win: Montoya wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Montoya (D)
94%
chance of winning
Ellison (R)
6%
Average margin
D+17.3
80% of outcomes
D+4 to D+31
Partisan lean
D+7
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

D+18.1R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
D+17.3R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Montoya 99%Ellison 1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Montoya 94%Ellison 6%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
New Mexico state offices
−0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+16.6Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+18.1Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in New Mexico andlook-alike placesD+18.1Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+18.1Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+17.3

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation2.37
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation2.37

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The state

Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+9.3D+7.1 vs. nation2020 presidentD+11.0D+6.5 vs. nation2024 presidentD+6.1D+7.6 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
2,120,246
Adults with a B.A.+
31%
White, no degree
23%of adults
  • White 36%
  • Hispanic 48%
  • Black 2%
  • Asian 2%
  • Other / multiracial 12%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

902,193 two-party votes · D+6.1 · D+7.6 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.1%
Donald Trump (R)46.9%

2022

696,247 votes · D+6.3
✓ Laura M Montoya (D)53.1%
Harry B Montoya (R)46.9%

2020 President Vote in this state

903,508 two-party votes · D+11.0 · D+6.5 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)55.5%
Donald Trump (R)44.5%

2018

681,602 votes · D+15.8
✓ Tim Eichenberg (D)57.9%
Arthur L Castillo (R)42.1%

2016 President Vote in this state

704,901 two-party votes · D+9.3 · D+7.1 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.7%
Donald Trump (R)45.3%

Also on the ballot in New Mexico

U.S. SenateBen Ray LujánLarry Marker>99%Dem.99%Dem. GovernorDeb HaalandGregg Hull91%Dem.89%Dem.