Democratic
New Mexico › New Mexico House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Mexico House District 39
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (67%).
Turrieta is favored to win: Turrieta wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Turrieta (D)
67%
chance of winning
Terrazas (R)
33%
- Average margin
- D+3.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (84%).
Turrieta is clearly favored to win: Turrieta wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Turrieta (D)
84%
chance of winning
Terrazas (R)
17%
- Average margin
- D+9.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Luis Terrazas
Incumbent state representative
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Mexico state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.2 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.38 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -8.38 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 27,775
- People per km²
- 2
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 48%
- Hispanic 48%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,532 votes · R+7.0✓ Luis M. Terrazas (R)53.5%
Gabrielle Begay (D)46.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
14,366 two-party votes · D+3.4 · D+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.7%
Donald Trump (R)48.3%
2022
12,037 votes · R+6.6✓ Luis M Terrazas (R)53.3%
Rodolpho S Martinez (D)46.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
11,307 votes · R+5.5✓ Luis M Terrazas (R)52.8%
Rodolpho S Martinez (D)47.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,638 two-party votes · D+5.5 · D+0.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.7%
Donald Trump (R)47.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
12,020 two-party votes · D+6.4 · D+4.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.2%
Donald Trump (R)46.8%