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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

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Maryland › Maryland House of Delegates · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Maryland Delegate District 36

3 seats

Arentz is very likely to win: Arentz wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Crouse (D)
1%
chance of winning
Arentz (R)
99%
Average margin
R+17.8
80% of outcomes
R+27 to R+9
Partisan lean
R+24
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Arentz is very likely to win: Arentz wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.

Crouse (D)
4%
chance of winning
Arentz (R)
97%
Average margin
R+18.4
80% of outcomes
R+31 to R+6
Partisan lean
R+24
Polls
No pollsmodel only

3 seats in this district

0.1 D · 3.0 R expected of 3 seats

0.1 D · 2.9 R expected of 3 seats

Statewide map: Maryland House of Delegates

How this race is decided

Multi-member delegate districts

Each of the 47 legislative districts elects one senator and three delegates. Some districts elect all three together, where voters pick up to three; others are split into one- or two-member subdistricts.

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

R+17.8R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
R+18.4R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Crouse 1%Arentz 99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Crouse 4%Arentz 97%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Maryland state offices
+1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office
58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
Mid-Atlantic adjustment
−0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 58% of the environment andthe Mid-Atlantic adjustmentR+15.3Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+17.8Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Maryland andlook-alike placesR+17.9Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+17.8Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+18.4

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-1.17
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-30
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean R+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+27.8R+30.1 vs. nation2020 presidentR+20.3R+24.8 vs. nation2024 presidentR+23.5R+22.0 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
140,947
People per km²
42
Adults with a B.A.+
33%
White, no degree
54%of adults
  • White 78%
  • Hispanic 7%
  • Black 8%
  • Asian 1%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024 President Vote in this district

73,423 two-party votes · R+23.5 · R+22.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)61.7%
Kamala Harris (D)38.3%

2022

110,284 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Jay A Jacobs (R)32.9%
Jeff Ghrist (R)32.3%
Steve Arentz (R)32.2%
Other Write-Ins (—)2.6%

2020 President Vote in this district

69,721 two-party votes · R+20.3 · R+24.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Joe Biden (D)39.8%

2018 Earlier district lines

128,627 votes · R+28.9
✓ Steven James Arentz (R)22.6%
Jay A Jacobs (R)22.5%
Jeff Ghrist (R)21.1%
Crystal Woodward (D)12.5%
Michael Ian Welker (D)11.0%

2016 President Vote in this district

59,415 two-party votes · R+27.8 · R+30.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)63.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.1%

2014 Earlier district lines

112,583 votes · R+41.0
✓ Jay A Jacobs (R)29.8%
Jeff Ghrist (R)24.2%
Steve Arentz (R)22.7%
Irving Pinder (D)12.5%
Robert Alan Thornton Jr (D)10.8%

Also on the ballot in Maryland

GovernorWes MooreDan Cox>99%Dem.>99%Dem.

Neighboring districts

HD-6Artus HuffmanRobin Grammer Jr.3 seats96%Rep.90%Rep. HD-30ADylan Behler—D vs D2 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-30BMatt JohnstonSeth A. Howard73%Rep.70%Rep. HD-31Joan Barone ColeBrian Chisholm3 seats93%Rep.89%Rep. HD-33CHeather BagnallKristin Norris99%Dem.95%Dem. HD-34AAndre Johnson Jr.Elliott Joseph Herneker2 seats>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-35BBlessing OluwadareDerek Howell>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-37BMichele JohnsonChristopher T. Adams2 seats95%Rep.93%Rep.