Multi-member delegate districts
Each of the 47 legislative districts elects one senator and three delegates. Some districts elect all three together, where voters pick up to three; others are split into one- or two-member subdistricts.
Maryland › Maryland House of Delegates · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Delegate District 11B
2 seatsCardin is very likely to win: Cardin wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Cardin (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Gordon (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+39.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+49
- Partisan lean
- D+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Cardin is very likely to win: Cardin wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Cardin (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Gordon (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+37.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+25 to D+51
- Partisan lean
- D+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Jon Cardin
- Experience
- State legislature
DemocraticIncumbent
Dana Stein
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
John Gordon
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.4 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.39 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.39 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 93,694
- People per km²
- 719
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 66%
- White, no degree
- 18%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 19%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
46,913 two-party votes · D+27.9 · D+29.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)63.9%
Donald Trump (R)36.1%
2022
63,433 votes · D+35.0✓ Jon S Cardin (D)34.9%
Dana M Stein (D)34.0%
Jim Simpson (R)16.8%
Tyler A Stiff (R)14.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
50,956 two-party votes · D+34.8 · D+30.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)67.4%
Donald Trump (R)32.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
44,489 two-party votes · D+28.4 · D+26.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)64.2%
Donald Trump (R)35.8%
Also on the ballot in Maryland
Neighboring districts
HD-10N. Scott Phillips—D vs D3 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-11ACheryl Pasteur—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-41Samuel I. Rosenberg—D vs D3 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-42AJyoti MohanChuck Murphy67%Rep.79%Rep. HD-42BMichele GuytonJeffry McDonald>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-43ARegina T. Boyce—D vs D2 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-43BCathi Forbes—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-44BAletheia McCaskillDomonic Martin2 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem.