Multi-member delegate districts
Each of the 47 legislative districts elects one senator and three delegates. Some districts elect all three together, where voters pick up to three; others are split into one- or two-member subdistricts.
Maryland › Maryland House of Delegates · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Delegate District 34A
2 seatsJohnson is very likely to win: Johnson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Johnson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Herneker (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+25.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+16 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Johnson is very likely to win: Johnson wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Johnson (D)
98%
chance of winning
Herneker (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+23.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+36
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
2.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Andre Johnson Jr.
- Experience
- State legislature
DemocraticIncumbent
Steven C. Johnson
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Elliott Joseph Herneker
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.14 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.14 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 84,944
- People per km²
- 171
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 51%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 31%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
41,452 two-party votes · D+16.7 · D+18.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)58.4%
Donald Trump (R)41.6%
2022
45,544 votes · D+11.4✓ Andre V Johnson Jr (D)29.6%
Steve Johnson (D)26.4%
Glen Glass (R)23.5%
Teresa Walter (R)20.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
40,902 two-party votes · D+19.7 · D+15.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.8%
Donald Trump (R)40.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
47,538 votes · D+7.4✓ Mary Ann Lisanti (D)28.5%
Steve Johnson (D)24.9%
Glen Glass (R)24.6%
J D Russell (R)20.2%
Sarahia Benn (—)1.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
35,208 two-party votes · D+10.5 · D+8.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.3%
Donald Trump (R)44.7%
2014 Earlier district lines
37,892 votes · R+3.7✓ Glen Glass (R)28.4%
Mary Ann Lisanti (D)26.4%
Mike Blizzard (R)23.9%
Marla Poseymoss (D)21.3%
Also on the ballot in Maryland
Neighboring districts
HD-6Artus HuffmanRobin Grammer Jr.3 seats96%Rep.90%Rep. HD-7ALy Xīnzhèn M. Zhǎngsūn BrownRyan Nawrocki2 seats85%Rep.74%Rep. HD-7BCandace HartLauren Arikan>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-34BAnthony LyonJake Taylor74%Rep.73%Rep. HD-35AGregory V. AndersonMike Griffith2 seats>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-35BBlessing OluwadareDerek Howell>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-36Nevin CrouseSteven J. Arentz3 seats99%Rep.97%Rep.