Multi-member delegate districts
Each of the 47 legislative districts elects one senator and three delegates. Some districts elect all three together, where voters pick up to three; others are split into one- or two-member subdistricts.
Maryland › Maryland House of Delegates · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Delegate District 32
3 seatsBartlett is very likely to win: Bartlett wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bartlett (D)
>99%
chance of winning
McEvers (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+37.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+29 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bartlett is very likely to win: Bartlett wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bartlett (D)
>99%
chance of winning
McEvers (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+38.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+26 to D+51
- Partisan lean
- D+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
3 seats in this district
3.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 3 seats
3.0 D · 0.0 R expected of 3 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
J. Sandy Bartlett
- Experience
- State legislature
Democratic
Spencer Dixon
DemocraticIncumbent
Mike Rogers
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Colin McEvers
Republican
Mary Phelps
Republican
Marcus Snipes
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.35 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.75 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 122,105
- People per km²
- 874
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 41%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 33%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
56,818 two-party votes · D+31.0 · D+32.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)65.5%
Donald Trump (R)34.5%
2022
97,213 votes · D+31.3✓ Mark S Chang (D)22.4%
J Sandy Bartlett (D)21.6%
Mike Rogers (D)21.2%
Monica L W Smearman (R)11.7%
Michael Jette (R)11.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
79,670 two-party votes · D+33.7 · D+29.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)66.8%
Donald Trump (R)33.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
117,202 votes · D+20.0✓ Mark S Chang (D)20.9%
J Sandy Bartlett (D)20.7%
Mike Rogers (D)19.9%
Patty Ewing (R)13.9%
Mark E Bailey (R)12.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
66,996 two-party votes · D+22.7 · D+20.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.4%
Donald Trump (R)38.6%
2014 Earlier district lines
85,424 votes · D+13.4✓ Pamela Beidle (D)20.0%
Mark S Chang (D)18.6%
Theodore J Sophocleus (D)17.6%
Tim Walters (R)15.3%
Mark Angell (R)14.4%