Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Kentucky › Kentucky House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kentucky House District 48
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (88%).
Kulkarni is clearly favored to win: Kulkarni wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Kulkarni (D)
88%
chance of winning
Fleming (R)
12%
- Average margin
- D+9.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (82%).
Kulkarni is clearly favored to win: Kulkarni wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Kulkarni (D)
82%
chance of winning
Fleming (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+9.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Suhas Kulkarni
RepublicanIncumbent
Ken Fleming
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kentucky state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.22 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.02 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -8.02 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 46,685
- People per km²
- 517
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 69%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 4%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
28,276 votes · R+7.5✓ Ken Fleming (R)53.7%
Kate Farrow (D)46.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
27,841 two-party votes · D+2.8 · D+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%
2022
22,774 votes · R+8.3✓ Ken Fleming (R)54.2%
Maria Sorolis (D)45.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
30,685 votes · R+2.2✓ Ken Fleming (R)51.1%
Maria Sorolis (D)48.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
24,793 two-party votes · D+4.0 · R+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.0%
Donald Trump (R)48.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
23,859 two-party votes · R+9.6 · R+11.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.2%