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Kentucky › Kentucky House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kentucky House District 39
Lockett is favored to win: Lockett wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Stanford (D)
24%
chance of winning
Lockett (R)
76%
- Average margin
- R+5.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lockett is clearly favored to win: Lockett wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Stanford (D)
17%
chance of winning
Lockett (R)
83%
- Average margin
- R+9.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Ryan Stanford
RepublicanIncumbent
Matt Lockett
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kentucky state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.04 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.57 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.57 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 50,851
- People per km²
- 396
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 6%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
21,253 votes · R+19.1✓ Matt Lockett (R)59.6%
Ryan Stanford (D)40.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
21,458 two-party votes · R+18.3 · R+16.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.2%
Kamala Harris (D)40.8%
2022
13,969 votes · R+19.2✓ Matt Lockett (R)59.6%
Gwendolyn E Mitchell (D)40.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
22,059 votes · R+22.3✓ Matt Lockett (R)61.1%
Carolyn Dupont (D)38.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
16,593 two-party votes · R+9.1 · R+13.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.5%
Joe Biden (D)45.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
18,167 two-party votes · R+26.6 · R+28.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.7%