DemocraticIncumbent
Mike Bare
- Experience
- State legislature
Wisconsin › Wisconsin State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin Assembly District 80
Bare is very likely to win: Bare wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bare (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Arora (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+52.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+43 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+50
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bare is very likely to win: Bare wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bare (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Arora (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+54.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+42 to D+67
- Partisan lean
- D+50
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Simran Arora
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wisconsin state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.38 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.23 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.23 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+50: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 62,918
- People per km²
- 261
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 65%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 2%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
41,667 votes · D+47.0✓ Mike Bare (D)73.4%
Robert Relph (R)26.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
42,031 two-party votes · D+49.3 · D+50.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)74.7%
Donald Trump (R)25.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
33,536 votes · D+39.4✓ Mike Bare (D)69.7%
Jacob D Luginbuhl (R)30.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
41,138 votes · D+29.0✓ Sondy Pope (D)64.5%
Chase Binnie (R)35.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
52,981 two-party votes · D+51.1 · D+46.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)75.6%
Donald Trump (R)24.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
43,372 two-party votes · D+45.2 · D+43.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)72.6%
Donald Trump (R)27.4%