Democratic
Wisconsin › Wisconsin State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin Assembly District 50
Oemichen is very likely to win: Oemichen wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Oemichen (D)
99%
chance of winning
Aleckson (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+19.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Oemichen is very likely to win: Oemichen wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Oemichen (D)
97%
chance of winning
Aleckson (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+19.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jon Aleckson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wisconsin state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.35 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.32 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 48,101
- People per km²
- 24
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
36,286 votes · D+12.6✓ Jenna Jacobson (D)56.3%
Rich Johnson (R)43.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
36,960 two-party votes · D+14.5 · D+16.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.3%
Donald Trump (R)42.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
24,038 votes · R+29.1✓ Tony Kurtz (R)64.5%
Michael Leuth (D)35.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
29,638 votes · R+26.6✓ Tony Kurtz (R)63.3%
Mark Waldon (D)36.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
38,366 two-party votes · D+18.4 · D+13.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.2%
Donald Trump (R)40.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
29,579 two-party votes · D+14.5 · D+12.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.3%
Donald Trump (R)42.7%