Democratic
Wisconsin › Wisconsin State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin Assembly District 76
Martinez-Rutherford is very likely to win: Martinez-Rutherford wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Martinez-Rutherford (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Chat (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+76.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+67 to D+86
- Partisan lean
- D+81
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Martinez-Rutherford is very likely to win: Martinez-Rutherford wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Martinez-Rutherford (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Chat (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+84.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+72 to D+97
- Partisan lean
- D+81
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Nina Chat
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wisconsin state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -18.28 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+81: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 61,718
- People per km²
- 2,299
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 61%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 8%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
34,709 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Francesca Hong (D)98.9%
Write-In (—)1.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
38,600 two-party votes · D+80.7 · D+82.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)90.3%
Donald Trump (R)9.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
27,702 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Francesca Hong (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
40,594 votes · D+76.4✓ Francesca Hong (D)88.0%
Patrick Hull (R)11.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
38,321 two-party votes · D+81.4 · D+76.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)90.7%
Donald Trump (R)9.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
33,373 two-party votes · D+80.4 · D+78.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)90.2%
Donald Trump (R)9.8%