Democratic
Wisconsin › Wisconsin State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin Assembly District 75
Tucker is very likely to win: Tucker wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mogel (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Tucker (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+24.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+15
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Tucker is very likely to win: Tucker wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Mogel (D)
1%
chance of winning
Tucker (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+26.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Duke Tucker
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wisconsin state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.65 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.07 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.07 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 57,901
- People per km²
- 13
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 71%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
36,940 votes · R+33.4✓ Duke Tucker (R)66.7%
Jane Kleiss (D)33.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
37,462 two-party votes · R+31.6 · R+30.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.8%
Kamala Harris (D)34.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
20,730 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ David Armstrong (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
32,258 votes · R+24.7✓ David Armstrong (R)62.3%
John C Ellenson (D)37.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
35,065 two-party votes · R+28.4 · R+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.2%
Joe Biden (D)35.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
29,691 two-party votes · R+29.1 · R+31.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.4%