Democratic
Wisconsin › Wisconsin State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin Assembly District 13
Zimmerman is very likely to win: Zimmerman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Zimmerman (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Morgan (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+25.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+16 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Zimmerman is very likely to win: Zimmerman wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Zimmerman (D)
99%
chance of winning
Morgan (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+24.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+12 to D+38
- Partisan lean
- D+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Mike Morgan
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wisconsin state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.82 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.46 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 52,485
- People per km²
- 789
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 64%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 6%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
39,384 votes · D+14.6✓ Robyn Vining (D)57.2%
Tom Michalski (R)42.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
39,431 two-party votes · D+20.9 · D+22.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.4%
Donald Trump (R)39.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
33,235 votes · R+12.6✓ Tom Michalski (R)56.3%
Sarah Harrison (D)43.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
37,928 votes · D+1.9✓ Sara Rodriguez (D)50.9%
Rob Hutton (R)49.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
39,109 two-party votes · D+15.8 · D+11.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.9%
Donald Trump (R)42.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
33,396 two-party votes · D+4.4 · D+2.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%