DemocraticIncumbent
Jill Billings
- Experience
- State legislature
Wisconsin › Wisconsin State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin Assembly District 95
Billings is very likely to win: Billings wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Billings (D)
97%
chance of winning
Schnitzler (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+14.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Billings is clearly favored to win: Billings wins in about 5 of every 6 simulations.
Billings (D)
82%
chance of winning
Schnitzler (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+8.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wisconsin state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.17 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.77 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.77 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 59,710
- People per km²
- 48
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
31,660 votes · D+4.0✓ Jill Billings (D)52.0%
Cedric Schnitzler (R)48.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
32,261 two-party votes · D+2.2 · D+3.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.1%
Donald Trump (R)48.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
25,263 votes · D+33.8✓ Jill Billings (D)66.9%
Chris Woodard (R)33.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
29,992 votes · D+31.4✓ Jill Billings (D)65.6%
Jerome Gundersen (R)34.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
29,708 two-party votes · D+8.6 · D+4.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
27,595 two-party votes · D+7.9 · D+5.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%