DemocraticIncumbent
Ben DeSmidt
- Experience
- State legislature
Wisconsin › Wisconsin State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin Assembly District 65
DeSmidt is very likely to win: DeSmidt wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
DeSmidt (D)
99%
chance of winning
Kretchmer (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+17.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
DeSmidt is clearly favored to win: DeSmidt wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
DeSmidt (D)
90%
chance of winning
Kretchmer (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+12.2
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Valerie Kretchmer
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wisconsin state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.41 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.6 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.6 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 43,691
- People per km²
- 815
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 8%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
28,283 votes · D+6.7✓ Ben Desmidt (D)53.3%
Brian Gonzales (R)46.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
29,133 two-party votes · D+7.1 · D+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
17,838 votes · D+23.7✓ Tod Ohnstad (D)61.9%
Frank Petrick (R)38.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
23,829 votes · D+20.6✓ Tod Ohnstad (D)60.2%
Crystal J Miller (R)39.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
29,429 two-party votes · D+9.4 · D+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.7%
Donald Trump (R)45.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
24,808 two-party votes · D+12.1 · D+9.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.1%
Donald Trump (R)43.9%