DemocraticIncumbent
Amaad Rivera-Wagner
- Experience
- State legislature
Wisconsin › Wisconsin State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin Assembly District 90
Rivera-Wagner is very likely to win: Rivera-Wagner wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Rivera-Wagner (D)
99%
chance of winning
Henderson (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+20.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Rivera-Wagner is clearly favored to win: Rivera-Wagner wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Rivera-Wagner (D)
95%
chance of winning
Henderson (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+16.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jessica Henderson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wisconsin state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.09 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.86 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.86 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 61,860
- People per km²
- 819
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 24%
- Black 4%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
23,693 votes · D+5.2✓ Amaad Rivera Wagner (D)52.5%
Jessica Henderson (R)47.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,468 two-party votes · D+10.2 · D+11.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.1%
Donald Trump (R)44.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
16,703 votes · D+18.4✓ Kristina Shelton (D)59.2%
Micah J Behnke (R)40.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
21,210 votes · D+20.4✓ Kristina Shelton (D)60.1%
Drew Kirsteatter (R)39.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,971 two-party votes · D+11.9 · D+7.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.0%
Donald Trump (R)44.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
21,292 two-party votes · D+8.0 · D+5.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%